How to build a connected TV advertising market outlook

What to take away

A connected TV advertising market outlook is your working estimate of how demand, supply and rules will shift over coming quarters, not one published number.
Read demand from advertiser budgets, platform inventory terms and seasonal buying patterns rather than headline forecasts.
Treat regulation and consent as planning inputs, because the Data Protection Act 2018 sets the baseline for viewing and targeting data.
Give the outlook a short update cycle, so it changes when the evidence changes rather than when a quarter ends.
Work through the checklist before you commit budget or brief a creative team.

How to frame the outlook

An outlook is a structured view of what will change and what would make you revise your plan.

Review Trigger Decision

Has a trigger occurred?

Yes

Rewrite outlook

Continue monitoring

Demand vs Supply Tracks

Demand

What it is: Advertiser spend
Speed: Moves differently
Evidence: Your buying history
Example: £400 per slot

Supply

What it is: Available inventory
Speed: Moves differently
Evidence: Platform terms
Example: Premium slots

Separate demand from supply

Demand is advertiser spend. Supply is inventory across streaming services and broadcaster platforms, including ITVX, Channel 4 and Sky. They move at different speeds. More advertiser interest does not automatically mean more premium slots at the same price.

Use your own buying history first. If your average cost per thousand impressions has moved over two quarters, that beats a national forecast.

Set review triggers

Decide in advance what would make you rewrite the outlook. Common triggers include a change in platform inventory terms, a new advertising code consultation, or a shift in how your audience watches streaming content.

A trigger needs a date and a threshold. For example, review in January 2025 if your cost per completed view on ITVX rises by 10 per cent against the October 2024 baseline. For how these signals fit together, see Connected TV advertising: trends and outlook.

Sources to cite in the outlook

Build the outlook from named sources with dates: platform documentation, regulator guidance and your own campaign data. Avoid anonymous market summaries. For viewing evidence, cite Ofcom's Media Nations report and Barb data.

Regulatory and compliance evidence

Compliance shapes what you can promise and measure. The Data Protection Act 2018 is the legal basis for handling personal data in ad targeting and measurement, so check consent and retention arrangements before you scale.

The Media Act 2024 received Royal Assent on 24 May 2024 and brings streaming services into Ofcom's remit. Check Ofcom's implementation consultations and the ASA's current code consultations for dates that affect your plan.

Creative claims sit under the advertising codes. ASA advice for businesses on advertising compliance explains the standards your ads must meet. If the outlook assumes a new format will be accepted, verify that first.

Creative and format evidence

Format and placement choices affect performance. For CTV, pre-roll length, screen size and non-skippable placement are the variables to test, so test those variables on ITVX, Channel 4 or Sky.

Pair that with your own test results. If a shorter pre-roll performs better on one platform, record the platform, the date and the sample size.

Update cadence and triggers

An outlook that is never updated becomes a historical document. Set a cadence: monthly for demand and supply, quarterly for regulation and skills.

Skills and team capacity

The outlook is only deliverable if the team can execute it. If the plan assumes programmatic buying, measurement or creative adaptation at a new scale, check whether those skills sit in-house. The Connected TV advertising skills forecast sets out how demand for those roles is changing, which helps when deciding whether to hire or brief an agency.

A working checklist

Demand: advertiser budgets, seasonal patterns and your cost per thousand impressions trend.
Supply: platform inventory terms, new ad formats and availability changes.
Rules: Data Protection Act 2018 compliance, ASA and CAP code updates, consent records.
Creative: format tests with dates and sample sizes recorded.
Skills: named owners for buying, measurement and creative adaptation.
Triggers: written thresholds and review dates for each track.
Evidence: every figure labelled with its source and period.

Common questions

How often should I update the outlook?

Monthly for demand and supply, quarterly for regulation and skills. Update sooner if a platform changes its inventory terms.

What is the biggest source of error?

Using a single national forecast as your plan. Your buying data, platform terms and regulatory guidance are firmer inputs for an England-focused plan.

Do I need a lawyer or compliance specialist?

For data handling and consent, yes, at least once. The Data Protection Act 2018 places obligations on you as a controller.

Can I use the outlook to justify budget?

Yes, if every figure is sourced and dated. Label illustrative numbers clearly, such as a £400 monthly test budget.